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Trends and cyclical variation in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in 26 European centres in the 25 year period 1989–2013: a multicentre prospective registration study – published online 28/11/2018

Fig 4 Patterson

Christopher C. Patterson, Valma Harjutsalo, Joachim Rosenbauer, Andreas Neu, Ondrej Cinek, Torild Skrivarhaug, Birgit Rami-Merhar, Gyula Soltesz, Jannet Svensson, Roger C. Parslow, Conxa Castell, Eugen J. Schoenle, Polly J. Bingley, Gisela Dahlquist, Przemysława K. Jarosz-Chobot, Dalė Marčiulionytė, Edna F. Roche, Ulrike Rothe, Natasa Bratina, Constantin Ionescu-Tirgoviste, Ilse Weets, Mirjana Kocova, Valentino Cherubini, Natasa Rojnic Putarek, Carine E. deBeaufort, Mira Samardzic, Anders Green

Recent publications from Scandinavian countries have suggested that a previously increasing incidence of type 1 diabetes in children under 15 years old may now be stabilising. In this issue, Patterson et al ( report results from a pooled analysis of data from 26 registers in 22 European countries during the 25 year period 1989–2013. The average rate of increase across Europe during this period was estimated as 3.4% per annum, although different patterns were apparent in different countries. When estimates were obtained for 5 year subperiods, the rate of increase was lowest at 1.1% per annum in the 2004–2008 period but rose again to 2.7% per annum in the 2009–2013 period. Evidence of a 4 year periodicity in incidence was evident in four centres but there was no obvious explanation for this. These findings have implications for those involved in the planning and delivery of healthcare for children with type 1 diabetes.

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